As much as I love DX for size, weight, focus point coverage, and affordability, the full-frame advantage of shallow depth and high ISO is something that every wedding portrait photographer should at least have at their disposal…

Consider this: People are *SO* hungry for a new full-frame camera body that they are paying $5,000 for the D3 faster than Nikon can manufacture them, even while the 5D and D300 (also 12 megapixels) both sell for about $3000 less. I’m not sure but I heard that more D3′s have been sold in the past ~6 months than the 5D has sold in the past ~3 years. That’s a steep claim though, so I wouldn’t stand behind it unless I saw legit sales figures.

The bottom line is, the following 12 months are going to be a frenzy of full-frame DSLR’s. Nikon will make a 24 megapixel D3X, and possibly a more affordable FX camera with the D3′s stunning 12 megapixel sensor. Canon will replace the 5D, possibly with a 16 megapixel sensor that rivals the D3′s high ISO capability and speed, and MAYBE a second, more affordable model. Nikon may also do a THIRD, super-affordable model, to match Canon. Lastly, Sony will enter the full-frame market with a 24 megapixel sensor and Samsung / Pentax are also whispering something similar.

Here’s the kicker- With the likes of Sony and Samsung, electronics giants, entering the race, the price wars will begin and things will get brutal. Imagine these possible scenarios:

The D3X comes out at *just* $5,000. That’s right, 24 megapixels of full-frame glory for a “mere” $5K. While Canon 1Ds mk3 owners will go ballistic for spending $3K too much on a possibly inferior camera, D3 owners will also be outraged if they didn’t buy the D3 specifically for it’s frame rate and high ISO performance.

Then, the Sony A900 comes out at *gasp* $3500. 24 megapixels for $3500, or 21 megapixels for $8,000? Canon 1Ds mk3 sales would come to a dead standstill, literally, if the Sony image quality is even half decent.

That pushes any “advanced amateur” full-frame body down below $3500, with maybe a higher end, D300 quality body with a D3 quality sensor at maybe $3000, along with a 5D replacement that has more pro-series features as well. And then if Canon and Nikon decide to also push even lower, making $2500 full-frame DSLR’s “for the masses…”

Definitely a blood bath. Personally, I’m very skeptical of the rumored prices that are floating around about how cheap these cameras are going to get so quickly. I think that if you could make a pro quality 24 megapixel full-frame DSLR and still turn a profit at $3500, Canon wouldn’t be selling their 1Ds series for the exorbitant $8K. I’m guessing that anything pro-grade is going to be $5000 or more, anything semi-pro grade isn’t going to be less than $3500, and that’s pushing it, with bottom-of-the-barrel “affordable full frame” probably no lower than $3000, $2500 only if they really make it a ghetto-camera.

Either way, I count 4-5 full-frame cameras coming in the next 12 months, and definitely fewer than that for the cropped-sensor market… The first part of 2008 has already seen the bulk of cropped-sensor DSLRs, for sure. One each from Canon, Nikon and Olympus, and two each from Pentax and Sony. The NEXT 365 days are going to be incredibly interesting… (And I will be totally enjoying my DX camera bodies in the meantime!)

Take care all,
=Matt=