Any day now, we can expect Canon’s 5D replacement specs to be “accidentally” leaked. It is like clockwork, just you watch!

Again, to reiterate the probable specs:

14-16 megapixel FF sensor, probably 14 if they’re smart… (So they can keep high ISO performance up)

3-5 frames per second, HOPEFULLY 5!

ISO 3200 or 6400 natively, with 12800 as HI. It will probably do as good as or better than the Nikon D3, even though it doesn’t go all the way to 25600.

Canon 40D body otherwise, with the same 9-point AF, semi-weather sealing, semi-pro build quality, but no pop-up flash.

I was previously ragging on Canon for not bringing their pro-series, 45-point AF system to prosumers in the 40D / 5D mk2, but after shooting with the 40D on a good number of occasions, I’m quite impressed and I’d say that for speed, accuracy and low-light capability, it blows away the 30D / 5D AF and rivals the D200 / D300. And for MOST users, the metal skeleton, semi-sealed build quality that is best described as semi-pro is the best balance between sturdiness and weight. So as much as I’d like to see Canon come out with a TRUE competitor to the D200 / D300 in the build quality respect, I must admit that it’s not really necessary for all the wedding / portrait shooters out there who don’t plan on going to Death Valley or Antarctica any time soon…

Oh, and it will have a direct-print button!

Will post again when the rumors / leaks start flying…

=Matt=

You might be a geek if there is a camera store in your “Fav Five”…

=Matt=

Since I can’t see anything from Thom Hogan in the way of predictions for next year, or this year for that matter, I’m going to take my own swing at 2008:

First, I think both Nikon and Canon have done a great job of solidifying their low-end market cameras. The Nikon D40 + D40X combo is brilliant because you can pick which sensor you want but still get a cutting-edge interface. Kudos to Nikon for still offering a 6 MP sensor in this day and age, it brings DSLR ownership that much closer to the masses. Having said that, the Canon XT’s 8 MP sensor is not really much more expensive than the D40… Albeit with older generation specs, (LCD size) but still, the 400D and it’s cutting-edge specs (sensor cleaner) make up for that I guess?

So, probably no new baseline DSLR’s from either parties. MAYBE by late 2008 at the very earliest, but I doubt it.

D80 / 40D: Don’t expect a Canon 50D till 2009. The Nikon D80 however could use an update- D90, if it comes: D300 sensor, D80 quality body but with a few of the D300′s new features. (3″ live view HD LCD, sensor cleaning, but probably not the 51 point AF…) No surprises here, unless they try and up the FPS to 5, or include the 51 point AF. One or the other might happen, but not BOTH if they wanna keep the body at around $1K…

And now, the exciting part:

Canon 5D mk2:
12-16 MP, probably 14.
3-5 FPS, probably 3.
otherwise, 40D body and specs, but maybe without a pop-up flash again.
This camera is so predictable, I’m even going to say that it will be announced in late January, in about 30-40 days…

I’d like to see Canon do something nuts and maybe start trickling down features form 1-series bodies, like maybe the 45 point AF, or the FULL pro build quality. We might get one of these specs, (and maybe 16 MP and maybe 5 FPS) but I doubt more than that. And if they’re NOT going to add any 1-series specs, it had better be priced competitively! Maybe $2999 to start, as opposed to the $3299 that the 5D started at.

They’ll probablly make the same insane leap that Nikon has done with high ISO performance. They COULD trounce Nikon easily if they left the sensor at 12 MP, but since I’m betting they up the resolution to 14 or 16 MP, it’ll be the 40D story all over again: marginal increase in resolution, marginal increase in high ISO performance. As opposed to staying at 12 MP and busting out a clean, native ISO 12800 or something, and beating the D3 by a stop or two…

Now, “touche” from Nikon: A D300 with a D3 sensor. This really MUST happen if Nikon is going to keep this head of steam that they’ve got. The 5D is THE premier camera among wedding / portrait photographers it seems, or at least it is considered to be some sort of holy grail. (And rightly so, the combination of resolution, detail and low noise performance is incredible, and it is becoming pretty darn affordable!)

Here’s the crux, and the reason I feel that the tide will change in 2008/2009: the FX version of the D300 will have all of the D300′s pro-series features, maybe minus an FPS or two, while the 5D mk2 may only be a 40D with a FF sensor. If that’s the case, expect to see the flow of “switchers” change directions. Yes that’s right, I know it will be weird but we might see more people converting from Canon to Nikon than the other way around…

SO, D300X, I’ll call it:
12 MP D3 sensor, with it’s native ISO 6400 and boost to 25600…
3-5 FPS, maybe 3 without a grip and 5 with? Or 4-6 FPS, same story?
Otherwise D300 specs, maybe no pop-up flash to accomodate a huge viewfinder. Personally though I’d LIKE to see a popup flash!
Announcement will be just a week or two after the 5D mk2, just like the D3 / D300 announcement followed hot on the heels of the 1Ds mk3 / 40D announcement…

I’m predicting however that both of these new FF/ FX beauties will be a little more expensive than we’re expecting them to be. I’d say 5D mk2 @ $2999, D300X @ $3500. MINIMUM, probably more. And as soon as people see this, the price of the 5D will stabilzie, and DX in general will regain some value. People will realzie that there will ALWAYS be a considerable price difference between FX and DX. (If the 30D vs 5D isn’t already an indication…) AND, the D300 / 40D will be established enough such that people realize just how capable the APS-C sensor size is!

Which leads me to my last set of predictions:

D3H: This is really more of a hope than a prediction. Heres what I’d really like to see:

A D3 with a D300 sensor? Why in the world, you ask?

Because as sweet as the D3 is for ultra-wide angle, fast action sports, it’s a step in the WRONG direction for many of the super-tele pros who are in love with 1.5x and 1.3x…

So, give me the camera that the D2X should have been: 12 MP at DX mode, ~10 FPS, and 7 MP in 2x high speed crop mode, ~13 FPS. And then the D300 sensor’s very decent high ISO performance, to seal the deal. Would this kill D3 sales? Maybe. But it wouldn’t be a cheap camera either, so I don’t think Nikon would care… $3500-4000, MORE sales potential than the D3… Potential cross-over from 1D mk3 shooters…

Lastly, the D3X that we also know is coming: ~22 MP, D3 body but a few FPS slower, to compete with the Canon 1Ds mk3… Fashion / advertising / commercial / architectural / landscape photographers, rejoice! Dunno if it will come in 2008 though, especially if Nikon is busy updating their D80, making D300 FX, and going nuts with a D3H…

Oh, and lenses! Well, I can’t really predict lenses as surely as I can predict a D300X and a D3X, but I can at least HOPE and somewhat predict:

Nikon~

70-200 VR update: close focusing sharpness and VR 2 could really do the trick for a lot fo D3 shooters!

AFS primes: Finally! Not really for the sake of sheer AF speed VS the AF-D screw-drive lenses, but for the SILENCE and the addictive versatility that is AF/M mode on AFS lenses. No more flipping switches to manual focus!

For starters, we’ll need an 85mm f/1.4 AFS and a 50mm f/1.4 AFS, with maybe f/1.8 versions that have the new “rod-type” AFS motor like in the new kit lenses…

Then, getting a little exotic, we really NEED to see the return of the 28mm f/1.4, with the addition of AFS of course, and maybe some other exotic lens like a 20mm f/1.8 AFS, or a 35mm f/1.4 AFS, I dunno…

Moving on to DX, here’s where I’d LIKE to see a few specific lenses but sadly DOUBT we’ll see them, ever:

50-150mm f/2.8 DX VR, and then maybe a 16mm f/1.8 DX or a 18mm f/1.4 DX? Ah you have no idea how much I would love that, Nikon. Then maybe a 16-60 f/4 DX VR, or a 16-60 f/2.8 DX, either/or…

Come on, Nikon, prove me wrong and make these lenses! (And come on, Canon, prove me wrong and make the 5D mk2 a true pro body!)

Take care,

=Matt=

You might be a camera geek if you have an old metal, manaual focus 50mm f/1.8 lens on your desk as a paperweight…

=Matt=

It’s the oldest trick in the book… Forget about the rush to get on a waiting list for that hot new camera, wondering when the next shipment will come in, and how many days / weeks / months it will be until you get your camera… Just wait for the people who were SO excited that they got on MULTIPLE waiting lists- when they end up with two or more cameras at their doorstep, they’ll post on a forum or somewhere, offering the camera to a fellow shooter as opposed to sending it back to the store and trying to get a refund…

Photographed a wedding today with much success and a little bit of “wow, better spend some time to get to know this camera!!! The brand new 51 point autofocus system in particular- It is blazingly fast and incredibly precise but has many ins and outs that will require mastering. I just watched an online video tutorial, and WOW, 3-D AF tracking mode is INSANE! It is derived from the “dynamic AF” concepts of previous Nikon AF systems, except now that there are 51 AF points completely blanketing the frame, it works INCREDIBLY well. I saw the video tutorial and I was like “yeah right, it can’t do THAT!” …so I tried it, and was indeed blown away…

Short and simple explanation: If you initiate focus on a subject in continuous focusing mode with 3-D tracking enabled, you can then “drag” your subject anywhere else in the frame (or the subject can walk / run etc.) …and the initial focus point will automatically move around the frame WITH the subject, following it the whole time. Holy toledo, batman! I guess it’s like a semi-improved version of Canon’s 1D series 45 point AF system? Except the D300 is $1800 brand new…

But like I said, it’s going to take a lot of mastering to really make it dance… Luckily, before my next wedding (next weekend) I will be at Scott Robert’s LA workshop this coming week. EXTREMELY excited about that, to say the least!

Peace out Napoleon,
=Matt=

PS: Oh and the high ISO performance is indeed insane. Not FF / FX insane to be sure, but I felt perfectly safe shooting normal shots all the way to 6400, and portraits up at 400… My Canon shooting friends will finally have to quiet down a little!

“I can feel it, coming in the air tonight…”

=Matt=

…And it is starting to really annoy me.

So, I’m willing to make any Nikon shoters out there an offer. Any weekend left this month, (pick a weekend, I’ve got a wedding!) ANY weekend, if you’re not using your DSLR or lenses, LET ME KNOW! I’ll buy you lunch, pay you $25, whatever you want, if you have a D2H, D200, a D80, a Fuji DSLR, a 17-55, 50 1.4, 35 f/2, ANYTHING that I am going to have to otherwise rent this month.

Okay I’m desperate. If you have a CANON DLSR and a lens, let me know too. *cringe*

(Garrick I already owe lunch, so maybe I’ll have to upgrade him to dinner if he loans me anything)

Here’s the deal- My D200 is at Nikon for focus calibration. Who knows how long that could take, it could be up to 2-3 weeks if I’m very un-lucky… My D70 plus no fewer than FOUR other items (lenses / flashes) are ALL at KEH being quoted for trade in towards a D300. Who knows what they’ll wanna buy and/or ship back to me… Lastly, the 50-150 f/2.8 that I still possess is focusing questionably on the rental S5 that I had this weekend. So essentially I have zero gear that I am 100% confident in. And FOUR weddings this month.

Talk about bad timing, eh?

Lemme know if you can help me out. If not, no big deal, I can just expense out the rentals, but still I hate to burn money, mine OR my clients…

=Matt=

EDIT: Just held the Olympus E-3 and 12-60 f/2.8-4 when I went to return my rental. WOW, that thing focuses FAST! They weren’t kidding when they claimed it was the world’s fastes AF system, I am in disbelief! Gerk, was the E-3 + 35-100 f/2.0 mind-bogglingly fast too? That particular setup is probably so much glass that it didn’t really seem different than the leading brand 70-200 2.8′s… But AF with the 12-60, man, this new SWD autofocus is like, instantaneous. Faster than the human eye even. Beats the snot out of Sigma’s HSM, noticeably faster than than the Nikon / Canon SWM / USM found in “prosumer” lenses, and equals / beats the ultra-fast 70-200 lenses… And I have tried them all, a LOT.

Viewfinder is big and bright, which is one thing I was worried about what with the 2X crop. Fears allayed!

Amazing quality body, too. I mean it is rock solid, but not heavy as a brick like a 1-series Canon or 2-series Nikon… Extreme attention to detail for those who photograph in really nasty conditions, seriously. Gotta be the best adventure photography setup on the market if you ask me… Only $2300 for the E-3 + 12-60! Sign me up for one plus I can get my favorite macro lens, the Sigma 150mm f/2.8 HSM, in the Olympus 4/3 mount. Niiice… That setup plus a 1.4x could get me from 24mm f/2.8 to 420mm f/4 with ease…

=Matt again=

So, Sigma has announced that they’re updating both the 50-150 f/2.8 EX DG, AND my beloved 50-150 f/2.8 EX DC

They are both now going to have the APO nomenclature, which means they’ve got an apochromatic element which SHOULD greatly improve close focusing…

This was a problem that was definitely visible with both the 50-150 AND the 70-200; even though the 70-200 officially had the “Macro” notation in it’s name it was not the best lens to shoot wide open at 200mm. My 50-150 is not the best lens to shot wide open at 150mm and close distances, either.

So hopefully the lenses should be tack sharp now at close focus distances.

HOWEVER, I have had a sad realization in using the 50-150 for a year or so now- It is not as practical as I originally thought to use a monopod in 90% of the situations I use the lens, meaning, I NEED STABILIZATION!!!! Yes I am the king of hand-holding rock-steady shots, but I dont’ always HAVE the time to hunker down and relax and steady myself and shoot without any camera shake, it takes time and concentration.

So, I am torn. Do I sell my current 50-150 and upgrade to the APO version? Do I WAIT for Sigma to come out with an OS version? Do I WAIT even MORE for Nikon to come out with their own DX verison with VR?

Sigh…

=Matt=

I am smitten. Thrice…

Hello Nikon D300, hello Fuji S5, and hellooOOooo Nikon D3!

Yes, I have recently handled and tested all three of these cameras. I shot a wedding with the S5 a weekend or two ago, I held / fired / tested the D300 on two occasions and the D3 just today, about 12 hours ago…

All three are AMAZING cameras in their own right.

The Fuji S5 does JPG:

Fuji S5, Nikon 50mm f/1.4, hand-held
1/50 sec, f/2.0, ISO 400. (+1 EV comp from matrix metering in apeture priority)
JPG capture with camera set to “Fujichrome simulation mode” (Velvia)
(COMPLETELY un-processed, without even the slightest bump in anything at all.)

The Fuji S5 does RAW:

Fuji S5, Nikon 24mm f/2.8 manual focus, tripod
1/2 sec. f/16, ISO 100. (Nikon pro bodies meter with old manual lenses…)
RAW capture with camera set to “STD” mode, dynamic range set to 400%
(NO bracketing exposures, NO graduated filters, NO dual-processing! ONE straight exposure!)

The D3 does ISO 25600!!!!!

(100% crop)
I am just in shock that the image even comes close to use-able. I mean, this is the camera at “HI 2″ for crying out loud. “HI 2″ is not suposed to look this clean!!!

The D300 does ISO 6400:

(100% crop)
Definitely not 16×20″ print quality, but I’ve done 4×6′x and 5×7′s with worse images, that’s for sure! And yes that would be JChan! Here’s the full size image…

What I notice foremost is the fact that Nikon has managed to do away with that horrible drop in color and tone when you used to switch into “HI” ISO modes. With all other cameras it was a slow progression of increasing noise until HI, and then POW the saturation and contrast just falls through the floor as soon as you switch the D200 to ISO 3200, for example.

Not anymore. Both the D300 and the D3 just roll right on through, hardly batting an eye when you switch into “HI” mode… Yes, there is noise. Yes, there is considerable loss of fine detail. But the matter of the fact is that they’re still use-able, AND the fact also is that ISO 800 and 1600 are now perfectly acceptable for almost ANY application. And THAT is what I need in a camera.

Now I just gotta decide which one to buy!